United States: Analysts See US War on Terror Succeeding
Washington, Mar. 11 2002 (VOA News) -- The war
on terrorism is succeeding beyond expectations, say two analysts
with military and anti-terrorist experience. But they say uncertainties
lie ahead, and the will of Americans is vital to continued success.
American
support for the war on terrorism remains strong, according
to a survey by the Washington Post and ABC News. It has not
weakened because of recent U.S. casualties in eastern Afghanistan.
That does
not surprise Milt Bearden, former CIA chief in Pakistan, who
compares U.S. losses in the current battle with those of the
Soviets in the same area during their losing war in Afghanistan.
"The
American media has absolutely hyperventilated over the casualties
we took last week," he said. "Each and every one
of them is a great personal tragedy, but we are talking about
the same piece of real estate where the Soviets lost 400 or
500 in a day."
Several
hundred of the enemy have been killed in the current battle
compared to a dozen Americans, notes Ralph Peters, a retired
military officer with long experience in the third world.
Even so,
he says no one was sure how Americans would react.
"I
think the military was holding its breath because it had such
negative experiences under President Clinton. But Bush weathered
the test," he said. "He did not over-react to casualties.
He did not come out with maudlin public statements. He treated
it quietly and respectfully. He did not flinch, and the American
people did not flinch in the least."
That attitude
must endure, says Mr. Peters, because it will take a long
time to fix a broken country. Like it or not, the United States
is committed to nation building in Afghanistan.
Mr. Bearden
says the United States cannot desert Afghanistan, as it did
after the Soviet withdrawal.
"The
picture that comes to mind is how unseemly would it appear
if the President of the United States has Hamid Karzai in
his box at the very intense moment of his address to the nation
on the 21st of January and then to turn and walk away from
Afghanistan," he said. "It is just not going to
happen, and nobody who is working this problem in the administration
believes that."
Success
in Afghanistan, says Mr. Peters, encourages Washington to
pursue terrorism elsewhere, especially in Iraq. Slowly but
surely, President Bush is getting ready.
"He
is doing some intelligent saber rattling right now,"
he said. "He is preparing not only the nation, but the
world and our forces for an eventual campaign against Iraq.
The administration is going to keep repeating this and repeating
this until over the months and perhaps over a year or two
our allies, clients, and even our enemies accept the fact
that it is a given. It is going to happen."
Not so
fast, cautions Mr. Bearden. The war in Afghanistan is far
from over, contrary to some optimistic expectations. And the
Israel-Palestinian conflict continues to enflame the region.
Saddam
Hussein is a containable threat, he says. No march on Baghdad
is necessary.
Beyond
that, assaulting Iraq would shatter the coalition needed for
fighting global terrorism and the United States cannot continue
the battle alone.
"Somebody
from the typical American mold is not going to penetrate a
terrorist cell that has four cousins and three brothers involved,"
he said. "You are going to have to get somebody who looks
like them, thinks like them, and acts like them to get into
those cells or at least to know when those cells even exist.
And that is going to take intelligence liaisons with a lot
of other countries."
Mr. Bearden
says the terrorist attack on America occurred because of a
breakdown in global, as well as U.S. intelligence. That vital
information system must be rebuilt to prevent another such
attack.
-- Ed
Warner - Voice of America in Washington
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Reprinted with the permission of Voice of America
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